The UK is to have a hung parliament after the Conservatives failed to win an overall majority in the general election.
The
Conservatives ended the night with 318 seats, Labour with 262, the SNP
with 35 and the Lib Dems with 14. Parties require 326 seats to command a
majority.
Prime Minister Theresa May's party may now have to depend on Northern Irish Unionist support to maintain its position in office.
Based on analysis by professor of politics John Curtice
and his team, this page tracked undeclared seats where the main parties
were still likely to make gains or where the result was too close to
call.
Methodology
Analysis for this page is carried out by professor of politics John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, and his team.
![Professor John Curtis](https://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/1D10/production/_96404470_john_curtice_976.png)
Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015
exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each
party at each polling location this time around is compared with the
share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of
change in support for each party.
These estimated changes in vote
share are then statistically modelled to (i) ascertain any systematic
geographical variation in the estimated changes in vote shares, and (ii)
derive estimated vote shares for every party in every constituency in
Great Britain.
From the latter, the probability as to which party
will win each seat is derived. For each party the exit poll forecast of
seats won is the sum of these probabilities of winning across all
constituencies.
Once declarations begin, forecasts are then based on a combination of exit poll and real results.
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